Summary

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Summary

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  Uncertainty is a key component of every game. If a game is completely predetermined, the player's actions will not have an impact on the outcome of the game and meaningful play will be impossible.

  
  


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  There are two levels at which uncertainty operates in a game. On the micro-level are the actual operations of chance that occur at isolated moments in the system of a game. On the macro-level are larger questions of uncertainty, which relate to the ultimate outcome of the game.

  
  


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  The relationship between a game decision and a game outcome can have three degrees of uncertainty. A certain outcome is completely predetermined. A risk is an outcome with a known probability of happening. An uncertain outcome is completely unknown to the player. It is rare to find a game of pure certainty, risk, or uncertainty. Most games combine some degree of risk and uncertainty.

  
  


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  It is possible for a game to possess a "feeling of randomness" even if no actual random mechanisms are present in the game system.This feeling can stem from strategic or social complexities that cannot be predicted in advance.

  
  


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  A game that has very little feeling of randomness can become too dry or competitive. A game that has too much of a feeling of randomness can become overly chaotic, leaving the players feeling powerless. There is no magic formula for how much randomness should be present in a game. In all cases, the key is to create meaningful play that takes unique advantage of the game structure.

  
  


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  When designing a game with chance elements, it is vitally important to understand the basic mathematics of probability and how they will impact the system you are designing.

  
  


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  Even games of pure chance can provide meaningful game play as long as players are given meaningful opportunities to take action within the game system.

  
  


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  There are many surprising ways that the operation of uncertainty can "break down" in the system of a game:

  
  
  
  
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    Because computer programs cannot generate true randomness, game designers should be skeptical about the random number-generating algorithms in a game.

    
    
  
  
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    Players can sometimes take a random component of a game and turn it into a strategic activity.

    
    
  
  
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    There are many commonly held fallacies about chance.